Monday, October 27, 2008

Derivative Effect

On mass collective graveyard were not mentions who are buried there. On the tombstone just write like this: Lehman Brothers and Friends! And the intricate of causing the death of biggest company called ‘Derivative Poisons’ as Warren Buffett said.

That poison was made of smartness, ambitions and greed. Substance contains such as commercial papers, mortgage-backed securities, short selling, hedging, over the counter, credit default swaps, equity swaps, interest swaps, margin trading, futures, forward, option, and many more. All of those economic terms can describe more detail but complicated.

In short word, all of those economic terms are banking system derivatives, which feel not enough if just got income just from accepting saving and give loan. It should be created a new banking product, that is derivatives. The creator must be smart people, ambitious, and greedy, and apply with smart, ambitious and greedy; the owner must be smart, ambitious and greedy.

Modern economic system has great variations, supported with computer system. Derivative trading is grown even bigger, but all just on the paper and computer screen. Even this is called as trading, but the circulation is not goods or money, but just numbers. The exchange is very fast, if you planting maize you will need of 6 months for harvesting, but derivative plating just need for seconds.

Six years ago, Warren Buffet has reminded openly, the dangerous of this derivative trading. Derivative is mass destroyer gun, this term also used when Mr. Bush attack to Irak for caching Mr. Saddam Hussein.

“I don’t know when this bomb will explode, but someday it does,” he said.

Derivative has exploded now, and economic crisis is merge.

Warrent Buffet is the richest man on this world, defeat of Bill Gates. He is the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway who has biggest retail on this world: Wall-Mart. He has a very bad experience of buy a company, seemingly just distended by derivative commerce. He want to sell again but not saleable, so he must clean the fat and its cholesterol of that company, from that company he loose much for five years. By those experience he said, derivative will explode, after five years, those bomb have five times bigger.

Supreme mortgage is just small part of those economic poisons causes. The money volume involved very big from the first prediction that just USD 15 trillion, possibly the transaction volume reach of USD 516 trillion. This number explicitly by all world central bank that is called by International Settlement (BIS) that is based on Basel, Swiss. Even American government has gave billout for $ 700 billion, the bank crisis still impossible to run smoothly.

How to go out of crisis, because of too big and complicated, as Buffet, this derivative trading can’t be controlled by all Government even USA, even just for monitoring. On derivative trader similar with gambler, can’t be differed. On pure stock trading, even there are a speculation, still can be analyzed, but on derivative can be analyze just by all system agent, money owner can’t understand.

So I just think, may better any economic revolution that remove all those derivatives trading and just vanishing all those money numbers on computer and just pay back for their real early capital or change the US$ symbol with Symbabwe $ and will reduce 1 million times. Just my opinion!

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